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Resumo
Este estudo examina a relação dinâmica entre crescimento econômico e desenvolvimento do transporte no Equador, considerando que ambos os setores apresentam interações temporais complexas que exigem uma abordagem rigorosa para sua análise. O objetivo principal é determinar o grau e a direção da influência entre o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) e o valor adicionado bruto do setor de transporte, utilizando séries temporais anuais expressas em milhares de dólares constantes para o período de 2000 a 2022. A metodologia utilizada baseia-se na estimação de um modelo de autorregressão vetorial (VAR) e na aplicação de testes de causalidade de Granger, que permitem capturar as interdependências entre as variáveis sem impor relações estruturais a priori. Os resultados indicam uma relação bidirecional entre crescimento econômico e transporte, embora com intensidade assimétrica. O PIB tem uma influência significativa e imediata sobre o transporte, enquanto o impacto deste último sobre o crescimento é mais gradual e acumula-se no médio prazo. A decomposição da variância reforça essa diferença, mostrando uma maior contribuição do PIB na explicação dos erros de previsão do transporte. Conclui-se que o setor de transportes, além de sua função operacional, desempenha um papel estrutural na economia nacional, devendo as políticas públicas considerar sua integração estratégica com os objetivos macroeconômicos de longo prazo.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Luis Cedillo-Chalaco, Sandra Sayonara Solorzano, René Romero-Solano, René Calero-Córdova