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Abstract
This study examines the dynamic relationship between economic growth and transport development in Ecuador, considering that both sectors exhibit complex temporal interactions that require a rigorous analytical approach. The main objective is to determine the magnitude and direction of influence between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the gross value added of the transport sector, using annual time series data expressed in thousands of constant dollars for the period 2000–2022. The methodology is based on the estimation of a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the application of Granger causality tests, which allow for the capture of interdependencies between variables without imposing prior structural assumptions. The results indicate a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and transport, although with asymmetric intensity. GDP has a significant and immediate impact on transport, while the influence of the latter on economic growth is more gradual and accumulates over the medium term. The variance decomposition reinforces this asymmetry by showing a greater contribution of GDP in explaining forecast errors in the transport variable. It is concluded that the transport sector, beyond its operational function, plays a structural role in the national economy, and therefore public policies should strategically integrate it with long-term macroeconomic objectives.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Luis Cedillo-Chalaco, Sandra Sayonara Solorzano, René Romero-Solano, René Calero-Córdova