Financing models, strategic impact on national security: between autonomy and dependence

Abstract

Ecuador has faced its highest security crisis in historical data. Between January and April 2025, 3,094 murders were recorded, representing a 58% increase compared to the previous year. In response, the government increased its defense budget to $1,621.8 million and raised VAT from 12% to 15%, while managing loans from multilateral organizations totaling $11 billion. This article examines how this hybrid financing structure—which includes tax revenues, external debt, public-private partnerships, venture capital, and, at the other extreme, illegal flows—affects the state's strategic capacity. Drawing on national legislation, official reports, and indexed academic literature, five financing models are identified and their impact on prevention, intelligence, critical infrastructure, and technological autonomy is analyzed. The results indicate that a lack of budget transparency and the difficulty in recovering illicit assets are the main obstacles: 20% of spending is classified as "reserved," and the State confiscates only 3% of the criminal proceeds detected. The conclusion is that diversifying funding sources requires, above all, sound financial governance: reliable fiscal guidelines, public-private partnership contracts with public indicators, ESG (Environmental Social Governance) clauses for private investment, and human rights protection measures that maintain democratic legitimacy.